Hello, YieldAlley readers! In this issue:

  • The Bill Schultheis Coffeehouse Portfolio: Wall Street Simplicity for Main Street Investors

  • U.S. Markets Decline Sharply on Tariff Escalation and Weakening Economic Data

  • US Bank Checking Account Bonus (Earn Up to $450)

  • Drawdowns of the Best-Performing U.S. Stocks

  • And more!

NEWS

Standout Stories

🔮 The Future of Retirement: How Technology Will Make Aging Easier (The Retirement Manifesto)

🚀 The Best Time to Invest (A Wealth of Common Sense)

📝 Trump fires BLS commissioner after weak jobs report (NBC)

🤖 Anthropic Revokes OpenAI's Access to Claude (Wired)

🪙 Are Stablecoins the New Money Market Funds? (SSRN)

MARKET THOUGHTS

U.S. Markets Decline Sharply on Tariff Escalation and Weakening Economic Data

  • ECONOMY

    • The July jobs report revealed significant labor market deterioration as the U.S. economy added only 73,000 jobs, falling well short of the 115,000 consensus estimate, while May and June figures were revised down by a combined 258,000 jobs, bringing the three-month total to just 106,000 new positions and indicating a much sharper cooling than previously recognized. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% as expected, while core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation accelerated to 0.3% month-over-month in June from May's 0.2%, pushing the annual rate to 2.8% and remaining well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Economic growth showed resilience in Q2 with GDP expanding 3% after Q1's 0.5% contraction, though this was primarily driven by reduced imports rather than underlying strength, while President Trump's August 1 tariff deadline passed with new tariffs imposed on most U.S. trading partners effective August 7, despite securing deals with the EU and South Korea and extending Mexico negotiations by 90 days.

  • STOCKS

    • Major U.S. equity indexes posted their worst week since the tariff-driven selloff in early April, with smaller-cap stocks bearing the brunt as the Russell 2000 plunged 4.17% and S&P MidCap 400 fell 3.53%, followed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining 2.92% and S&P 500 dropping 2.36%, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite held up relatively better with a 2.17% decline yet maintained its year-to-date leadership. Corporate earnings provided a mixed backdrop with 82% of the 66% of S&P 500 companies reporting through Friday beating consensus estimates and delivering a blended 10.3% earnings growth rate, though several firms including Ford Motor warned of tariff headwinds with Ford expecting a $2 billion impact this year, while Microsoft and Meta Platforms both rallied on better-than-expected results and positive artificial intelligence commentary.

  • FIXED INCOME

    • U.S. Treasury yields declined across most maturities on Friday as the disappointing jobs data and new tariff announcements drove safe-haven demand, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield falling nearly 0.16 percentage point to 4.22% and reinforcing expectations for Federal Reserve policy easing. The Federal Reserve held its target rate steady at 4.25%-4.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting as widely expected, though two governors dissented in favor of an immediate quarter-point cut, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting comments emphasizing data-dependent policy and concerns about above-target inflation initially dampened September rate cut expectations before Friday's weak jobs report sent market pricing for a September cut sharply higher according to the CME FedWatch tool.

INCOME BUILDING

The Bill Schultheis Coffeehouse Portfolio: Wall Street Simplicity for Main Street Investors

Bill Schultheis, a former Smith Barney stockbroker turned financial advisor and author, revolutionized personal investing with his "Coffeehouse Investor" philosophy in 1998. Drawing from his 11 years of making "a hundred cold calls a day" on Wall Street, Schultheis created an investment approach for people who "have better things to do with their lives than pay attention to the stock market." His seven-fund portfolio model offers a middle ground between simplicity and diversification for individual investors seeking market returns without market complexity.

Understanding Schultheis's Investment Philosophy

The Coffeehouse Portfolio consists of seven asset classes with a 60% equity, 40% bond allocation:

  • 10% Large Cap Blend Stocks - Core domestic market exposure

  • 10% Large Cap Value Stocks - Value factor tilting

  • 10% Small Cap Blend Stocks - Small company exposure

  • 10% Small Cap Value Stocks - Enhanced factor positioning

  • 10% International Large Cap Blend - Global diversification

  • 40% Intermediate Term Bonds - Stability and income

  • 10% REITs - Real estate inflation protection

This allocation reflects Schultheis's "slice and dice" approach to domestic equity while keeping international exposure modest at just 10% (representing 17% of total equity allocation).

The Three Core Principles

Schultheis built his portfolio around three timeless investing principles:

1. Don't put all your eggs in one basket - Diversify asset classes based on your ability and need to take risks

2. There's no such thing as a free lunch - Markets are efficient enough that investors should focus on capturing market returns rather than trying to beat them

3. Save for a rainy day - Develop a financial plan that aligns savings with retirement goals and spending needs

The Rationale Behind Key Allocations

Domestic Equity Slicing: Unlike total market approaches, Schultheis deliberately separates large and small cap stocks while tilting toward value factors. This reflects his belief that these distinct asset classes can provide enhanced diversification and potentially higher returns over long periods.

Conservative International Weighting: The 10% international allocation reflects the portfolio's origins in the late 1990s when home bias was more pronounced. Modern implementations might consider higher international allocations for better global diversification.

REIT Inclusion: The 10% REIT allocation provides real estate exposure and potential inflation protection, though this is more conservative than David Swensen's original 20% recommendation.

Bond Emphasis: The substantial 40% bond allocation enables investors to maintain consistent asset allocation throughout their accumulation phase, embodying the "lazy portfolio" philosophy of "set it and forget it."

Schultheis's Background and Conversion

Schultheis's transformation from Wall Street insider to index fund advocate began during his stockbroking career at Smith Barney. After 11 years of witnessing clients struggle to beat market returns through stock picking and active management, he realized that "it is pretty darn hard to beat the market over time."

A pivotal moment came through his volunteer work with Hospice of Seattle, which caused him to question his career direction and life priorities. This experience reinforced his belief that successful investing should free people to focus on "pursuing their rich life" rather than obsessing over market performance.

His 1998 book "The Coffeehouse Investor" emerged from his desire to share a simple investment philosophy with "people like my seven brothers and sisters, people who are doing great things with their lives, involved in their careers, their families, communities" who "don't want to pay attention to the stock market."

Performance and Practical Considerations

The Coffeehouse Portfolio has delivered competitive returns while maintaining the simplicity that allows investors to "get on with their lives." However, implementation requires attention to several factors:

Tax Efficiency: Bond funds and REITs generate regular income that may be better suited for tax-advantaged accounts.

Rebalancing Complexity: Seven funds require more maintenance than simpler three-fund portfolios, though still manageable for committed investors.

Factor Tilting: The value and small-cap tilts may underperform growth stocks for extended periods, requiring investor patience and discipline.

Modern Implementation

Contemporary ETF implementation might include:

  • VTI (Total Stock Market) - Split into large/small components

  • VTV (Large Value) - 10%

  • VB (Small Blend) - 10%

  • VBR (Small Value) - 10%

  • VXUS (International) - 10%

  • BND (Total Bond) - 40%

  • VNQ (REITs) - 10%

The Coffeehouse vs. Yale Endowment Approach

While both Schultheis and David Swensen advocate for diversified, low-cost investing, their approaches differ significantly. Swensen's individual investor portfolio emphasizes TIPS and international exposure more heavily, while Schultheis focuses on domestic factor tilting and maintains higher bond allocations. Both reject the complex alternative investments available to institutions, designing their recommendations specifically for retail investors.

Philosophy Over Precision

Perhaps Schultheis's greatest contribution lies not in his specific asset allocation but in his broader philosophy. As he noted, his initial portfolio recommendation was "intended to be just one example of a Coffeehouse-style portfolio." The enduring value comes from helping investors "capture their fair share of market returns" while focusing on life's more important pursuits.

This mindset-over-methodology approach distinguishes the Coffeehouse philosophy from more rigid portfolio models. Schultheis consistently emphasizes that "by keeping things simple, [investors] actually accentuate their chances of maximizing their returns over a lifetime of investing" because simplicity allows focus on crucial aspects like tax efficiency, asset location, and proper insurance coverage.

Legacy and Modern Relevance

Twenty-five years after its introduction, the Coffeehouse Portfolio remains popular among investors seeking a middle path between extreme simplicity and complex factor investing. While some critics argue that its benefits don't meaningfully exceed simpler three-fund approaches, supporters appreciate the enhanced diversification and the psychological comfort of factor tilting.

Schultheis himself continues advocating for the principles that matter most: low costs, diversification, and the discipline to stay the course. His message that "you're not living for money" but using "money as the servant" for life's true priorities resonates as strongly today as it did when he first left Wall Street to pursue a more meaningful approach to helping people build wealth.

INCOME BUILDING

Cash Rates

Government Money Market Funds (7-Day Yields)

  • SNVXX (Schwab Government Money Fund - Investor Shares): 4.05%

  • SPAXX (Fidelity Government Money Market Fund): 3.98%

  • TTTXX (BlackRock Liquidity Funds: Treasury Trust - Institutional Class): 4.18%

  • VMFXX (Federal Money Market Fund): 4.23%

Brokered CD Rates (6-Month Rate)

  • Charles Schwab: 4.14%

  • E*Trade: 4.30%

  • Fidelity: 4.25%

  • Merrill Edge and Merrill Lynch:

  • Vanguard: 4.30%

ETFs (30-Day Yields)

  • SGOV (iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF): 4.24%

  • BIL (SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF): 4.15%

  • USFR (WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury Fund): 4.29%

  • TFLO (iShares Treasury Floating Rate Bond ETF): 4.27%

DEALS AND BONUSES

US Bank Checking Account Bonus (Earn Up to $450)

US Bank has relaunched their checking account bonus promotion with improved eligibility terms and revised bonus tiers. This offer provides cash incentives for new account holders who complete direct deposit requirements within 90 days, representing one of the more accessible bank bonuses currently available nationwide.

Offer Details

  • Available for new US Bank checking account customers through September 16, 2025

  • Must open account with minimum $25 initial deposit via online application, branch visit, or phone

  • Eligibility improved: bonus available if no similar bonus received in last 12 months (reduced from 24 months)

  • $450 maximum tier: Direct deposits totaling $8,000+ within 90 days

  • $350 mid-tier: Direct deposits totaling $5,000-$7,999.99 within 90 days

  • $250 entry tier: Direct deposits totaling $2,000-$4,999.99 within 90 days

  • Must enroll in mobile app or online banking within 90-day period

  • Requires minimum two separate direct deposit transactions

  • No minimum balance maintenance required after bonus qualification

  • Available nationwide in US Bank footprint states, plus existing customers in non-branch states

  • Monthly maintenance fee of $6.95 waived with $1,000+ monthly direct deposits, $1,500+ average balance, or eligible credit card relationship

Our Thoughts

This promotion offers solid value for those who can legitimately redirect substantial direct deposits, with the reduced 12-month eligibility window making it accessible to more previous customers. The $450 maximum bonus provides competitive returns compared to current bank bonus market rates, while the $2,000 minimum threshold creates an achievable entry point. The 90-day timeframe allows flexibility for timing direct deposit changes, though the requirement for legitimate direct deposits (not ACH transfers) limits accessibility for some bonus churners. The relatively low account maintenance requirements make this suitable for both short-term bonus capture and longer-term banking relationships, particularly for those already in US Bank's geographic footprint.

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